Business Times [Singapore]: Mr Tung's deep political exercise

AFTER months of dithering, Tung Chee-hwa threw caution to the wind two weeks ago and declared the controversial Falun Gong group 'an [Jiang Zemin government's slanderous term omitted]'. As recently as last month, the Hong Kong chief executive called the movement 'a bit of a xx'. In February, he labelled it 'more or less a xx'.

But by openly tagging Falun Gong an [Jiang Zemin government's slanderous term omitted], Mr Tung, who stopped short of saying he would outlaw the [group] which is banned on the mainland, has effectively painted himself into a political tight corner. Where does he go from here?

To declare a group of people an [Jiang Zemin government's slanderous term omitted] is no small matter, especially when the pronouncement comes from the chief executive himself. Already, members of the movement have cried foul, claiming defamation and threatening to sue. Pro-democracy lawmakers have also flayed Mr Tung for what they saw as careless comments which they claimed undermined Hong Kong's autonomy and its promise of freedom of thought and assembly.

The expectation, of course, was that, having uttered those words publicly, Mr Tung would have to follow up with concrete measures to rein in the '[Jiang Zemin government's slanderous term omitted]'. Instead, he was quick to say there were no specific plans to deal with the group in the near future. It was then left to his deputy, Donald Tsang, to assure the public that the government would not ban the movement, but would instead deal with it 'the Hong Kong way' - by talking to them 'quietly'.

Already, the British and the Americans are said to be ratcheting up the pressure on Mr Tung's administration not to act rashly. The British government said it would always be concerned about any perceived threats to Hong Kong's autonomy and freedoms as promised under the Joint Declaration. Word has it that London made it very clear to the Hong Kong government that it would respond with sharp measures such as a possible downgrading of ties if Mr Tung bans the [group]. The Americans, too, are said to have signalled that they would retaliate with measures which would include declaring the 'one country, two systems' policy dead and possibly reassessing trade links with China.

International image

With China's foot in the WTO door, Mr Tung is surely not going to rock the boat with any clumsy moves to clamp down on a group that practices meditation but who have shown an ability to organise public demonstrations whenever action is taken against them or when their rights are infringed. More importantly, most Hongkongers do not seem too bothered by the Falun Gong movement. Unless the government can produce convincing evidence of dangerous activities by the [group] or a public security threat, a clampdown would not be in the Tung government's best interests.

As former chief secretary Anson Chan pointed out in her last days, it is crucial that Hong Kong maintain its uniqueness under the one country, two systems policy. Any departure from that could seriously detract from its international image. On the broader front, Mr Tung would also have more serious implications to consider as Beijing and Washington are still struggling to normalise ties in the wake of the recent spy plane incident. Caught between a rock and a hard place, it will take all of Mr Tung's skills to come up with a face-saving solution. But, for now, he should perhaps observe the dictum: silence is golden.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/views/story/0,2276,12595-993585540,00.html?